River Tales

The little blue dot is me, entering the ABC amphitheater.
Picture by J.R. 

Stepping on what makes up the headwaters of the most populous river basin in the world is not an experience to be taken lightly. I walked on the snow and glaciers that eventually melt into tributaries of the Ganges river that flows from Nepal into India, passing by millions of people, picking up bits and pieces of the land through which it runs and finally releasing its water and sediment into the sea at Bangladesh. I had the opportunity to walk next to one of the veins of the Ganges up to the Himalayas, feeling the sheer power of the crystal blue rushing water, imagining the millions of people that would benefit from it as its rush to the sea slows through the plains and become thick and opaque with traces of the river bed. 

The river tells the story of its past if you know how to read it.  It runs free here, unrestricted by human manipulation. At the headwaters, it tells the story of a young, clear river, running to join the sea, naïve of what lays in store downstream.

Glacial melt. Picture by J.R.

A few days ago, I realized how incredible it was to have experienced the Ganges so early on in its journey. To be so connected and feel so in touch with nature and people through a river… it reminds me why I want to work in the water sector.

This recognition occurred last Wednesday, when I attended a lecture that brought these feelings flooding back to me. Dr. Claudia Sadoff, regardless of how you feel about her work, is the superwoman of the water world. An economist by training, she has risen the ranks of the international sector and is now positioned at the World Bank as one of the world’s experts in water economics and policy. Her recent work focused on South East Asia where she and her research team developed the Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment, refuting some assumptions that had until now, been used as geopolitical leverage between nations.

Contemplating a melting glacier. Picture by J.R. 

The results of this study will have massive geopolitical implications and are making people rethink the reasons for the historical international pressure that Nepal has faced to develop large hydropower systems. The main benefits of damming the Himalayas have been purported to be downstream flood mitigation, income from electricity sales for Nepal and irrigation benefits for farmers along the Indian plains as water could be regulated like a faucet. The way Sadoff described this project brought to mind the image of kids playing on a beach, digging holes, building castles and moats to see how the waves change the shape of their mud sculptures. 
Only in this case, it is the World Bank playing legos on one of the world’s biggest river basins.

The results aren’t yet public, but preliminary findings show that the portion of runoff that comes from glacial melt is actually a minimal contributor to the total Ganges runoff – 4%. This means that even if the mountains are dammed, the downstream impacts are not nearly as clear as previously assumed. The river actually picks up more runoff from the monsoon rains than it does from snow melt. As well, the volume of water that a dam in the Himalayas could hold is not as much as planners have been led to believe. Nepal may well find itself liberated from pressure from international groups that have used the arguments of helping prevent flooding downstream and providing irrigation benefits during dry seasons. In fact, the study has concluded that India could benefit more from groundwater extraction of its own aquifers in the dry seasons than from regulated flow from its upstream neighbour’s dam potential.

Nepal sits poised in a politically interesting zone, bounded by the Asian giants China and India that along with the international community, are eyeing the country’s vast water supply and energy production potential, estimated at 43,000MW of economically and technically feasible hydropower development. This holds true, according to Sadoff’s findings, leaving Nepal simultaneously in a position of risk and potential. Risk of hydropower development without proper control, regulations and governance could lead to disastrous impacts on the environment and Nepali livelihoods. However, the potential of economic development for this impoverished nation through the sale of electricity to India and China could be managed and distributed to help Nepal rise out of poverty.

Picture by J.R. 

Nepal has historically been hesitant to enter into contracts with India, as it has assumed that a win-win scenario is impossible due to India’s superior economic power. The economic benefits of large hydropower dams in Nepal are still not refuted and even more, the numbers show that the main share of financial benefits would be from hydropower production in Nepal, valued between $7.4-7.8 billion in income potential for the country. The economic benefits for India and Bangladesh given assumptions of high value for irrigation and ecosystem services vary between $3.6-3.8 billion. In other words, regardless of the downstream benefits of hydroelectric dams, Nepal would win economically if they were to build dams, with fewer tradeoffs than previously imagined.

It seems that the tide has turned on the reasons for Nepal’s resistance to dams and the reasons for India and Bangladesh to encourage. This study has the potential to change the entire political dynamic between the nations. As Sadoff explained, the problem now is to get the nations to sit down at the same table to discuss the future of the basin, based on the new findings.

Of course, there are major considerations left out of this study, mainly the small issue of the environmental and social implications of large hydroelectric developments in inhabited pristine Himalayan mountains. The history of political instability in Nepal is also a factor to consider for equity and benefit sharing between nations. Throughout all of this, it is important to keep in mind who is conducting the study and what their interest is. While this course has made me more open minded about the potential benefits of large scale projects, my background keeps me rooted in healthy scepticism about international organizations like the World Bank and the IMF.

View from Sinuwa

This study answers questions and clarifies some important points while leading to a myriad of other questions about the future of the Ganges river basin. What will Nepal’s role be in the next few decades? Considering how their national policies are moving towards encouraging and supporting small scale micro-hydro development for rural electrification, will Nepal see big projects as beneficial to the future of the country’s economy? As well, knowing the impacts of the Strategic Basin Assessment for the Ganges, will it be released to the general public as is, or will pressure from India alter it to its benefit?