Keeping my writing muscles active

My post on the Oxford University Water Security Website

One of thirty dissertation ideas

A panacea? Using permaculture for groundwater recharge, soil desalination and food security in arid areas.
In the Jordan valley, a project was started to increase soil fertility on barren, arid, saline soil, using permaculture techniques to harvest rainwater on ten acres in contour swales. Within a short amount of time, fruit bearing trees were growing and the salinity of the soil was decreasing without having washed into the groundwater, polluting it. The same techniques were used in Australia and while surrounding areas were desiccating due to the millennium drought, the permaculture project yielded new springs, fertile soil and high agricultural yields. This project aims to analyze the validity of these accounts and the scalability of these methods. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ra89Y3WefQ&feature=fvsr

Fausse-ill fuels

Another little writing exercise for my energy and environment class

__________________________

 ARE WE RUNNING OUT OF FOSSIL FUELS


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The phrasing of this question points to an important aspect of fossil fuels. The simple fact that we can “run out” of them means that there is an issue in the renewability of this resource. In the case of fossil fuels, the scarcity of the resource is an economic balance between supply and demand and the feasibility of extraction with current market prices.

It is important to understand what the nature of the resource we are discussing is, in order to properly understand the idea of its depletion. Fossil fuels are carbon rich life forms that existed hundreds of millions of years ago that have, through geological action, been pressurized and transformed over several eras into coal, petroleum, natural gas, oil shale, bitumen and heavy oils (Britannica 2012). In terms of human time span, this resource is considered non-renewable, as we are consuming it at a faster rate than it can replenish itself and therefore production will eventually fail to balance with demand (Owen et al 2010).

The fossil fuel era is widely acknowledged to be bringing about a rise in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, causing climate change (Andres et al 1999). Fossil fuels have been used since 1751 for various purposes, such as heating, cooling, electricity production and transportation (Andres et al 1999). Today, our societies are so reliant on fossil fuels that we use them to the detriment of current and future generations as their extraction and consumption carries with it the very real risk of large scale pollution of soil, water and air.

Debate has surrounded the question of scarcity of fossil fuels for decades and though fears are that supplies are running out, the consumption of this resource has steadily increased for the past 150 years and carbon dioxide emissions from production has multiplied by 500 times since the mid 18^th century (Andres et al 1999, Brecha 2012). As the price for oil increases, it becomes economically viable to pursue reserves that previously may not have been considered due to difficulty of access, lack of infrastructure, complexity of technology needed for extraction and cost of exploration (Brecha 2012). This is an argument against the concept of “peak oil”, which is the idea that oil production would reach an upper limit of production and then decrease dramatically (Smith 2012). Unaccounted for in this original hypothesis of resource scarcity, is that fossil fuels are highly tied to market processes and some argue that the effect of peaking is not indicative of the scarcity of a resource (Smith 2012). In reality, there is no reliable indicator for the scarcity of exhaustible resources, such as fossil fuels when they are market dependent (Smith 2012). 

As the easily accessible resources run out, the market adjusts based on supply and demand and the price that people are willing to pay for fossil fuels increases (Smith 2012). As conventional oil prices increase, there are more incentives for substitutes to these costly scarce sources, such as tar sands, shale oil and natural gas (Brecha 2012). Over time, as all these reserves are drained, the price will increase causing a shift in behaviour in the market. This is contrary to the concept of peak oil, because prices are what determine accessibility of the reserves, and in this case accessibility is what determines scarcity (Brecha 2012). Fossil fuels are limited in resource due to the nature of access. By this, I mean that at lower prices of oil on the market, producers aren’t willing to invest in more costly to harness reserves such as tar sands, which require massive amounts of investment and are profitable only if the price reaches a certain level.   As of 2011, the U.S. Crude Oil First Purchase Price was nearly $96 per barrel, and the tipping point for major tar sands production in Canada was in 2000 when prices started to climb above $30 per barrel (Government of Alberta 2011, EIA 2012).

In general, crude oil prices are relatively stable, other than the 2007 to 2008 jump, when oil doubled in cost in a twelve month span and then dropped down to half of its starting point (Kaufman 2011). Speculation in the market also affects the price of this commodity and therefore its production (Kaufman 2011).

Knowing the size of the secondary, non-conventional resource is important in order to transition from crude oil to tar sands for example. Extraction and production of non-conventional oil reserves is important to begin early enough to buffer the decrease in main reserves and prevent a huge fluctuation in the market (Brecha 2012). This is tricky, because until prices are high enough, there is no financial incentive to encourage this kind of exploration.

Conventional oil production is estimated to be going in decline and there is a general agreement that changes in supply, stronger environmental regulations and increasing prices will force the market away from crude oil (Owen et al 2010).

Whether or not we are running out of fossil fuels, I believe society should be investing in switching to renewable forms of energy. On the one hand, running out of traditional forms of fossil fuels means that we are constantly exploring harder to access reserves, which pollute more in the course of their lifecycle (Kaufmann 2011). In that sense it is not a viable long-term investment, as externalities such as environmental health and human health are not accounted for.  When these externalities are included in the overall assessment of energy forms, the cost-effectiveness of non-renewable sources like fossil fuels is greatly reduced and becomes on par with renewable energy (Valero et al 2012). In this sense, increasing prices of fossil fuels and scarce resources are driving innovation into alternate forms of energy production, including renewables that have a smaller environmental footprint in terms of water, air and soil (Stoglehner 2003).

Community ownership and decentralization of energy production

There is no clear answer as to whether depletion of fossil fuel reserves is a positive or negative scenario. What is imminently clear is that society will need massive structural changes to incorporate different kinds of energy into the grid. This new energy future will require both top-down and bottom-up approaches in how our energy consumption is viewed.

The sky is the limit for those willing to try

Systematic infrastructure changes will be needed to implement renewable energies that require storage for peak hours: smart grids, large scale batteries, more efficient transmission lines are but a few things that will need to be thought of. From the consumer’s perspective, it will require a vast reduction in consumption and a new way of thinking about oneself in the context of an energivore society. Consumers may have to stagger certain activities to reduce peak hour pressure on the grid, be willing and open to alter behaviour and expect price variations that reflect the new economy. These shifting prices and energy standards may also bring about a decentralization of energy production, encouraging consumers to become their own producers and take charge of their own supply and demand on a local level. 

References 

Andres, R. J., Fielding, D.J., Marland, G., Boden, T.A., Kumar, N., Kearney, A.T. (1999). Cardon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use, 1751-1950. Tellus. 51(B). pp. 759-765. 

Brecha, R.J. (2012). Logistic curves, extraction costs and effective peak oil. Energy Policy. 51. Pp.586-597 Accessed October 31st from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421512007744

EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration). (2012). Petroleum & Other Liquids. Independent Statistics and Analysis. Accessed November 1st from 

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=f000000__3&f=a

Fossil fuel 2012. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Retrieved 01 November, 2012, from http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/214545/fossil-fuel

Government of Alberta. (2011, September). Understanding the oil sands: Oil sands. Accessed November 1st from

Kaufmann, R.K. (2011). The role of market fundamentals and speculation in recent price changes for crude oil. Energy Policy. 39(1). Pp. 105-115. Accessed November 1st from

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421510007044

Lutz, C., Lehr, U., Wiebe, K.S. (2012). Economic effects of peak oiL. Energy Policy. 48 Pages 829-834. Accessed December 31st from 

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421512004296

Miller, M. H. and Upton, C. W. (1985), The Pricing of Oil and Gas: Some Further Results. The Journal of Finance, 40: 1009–1018. Accessed December 31st from 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb05030.x/abstract

Owen, N.A., Inderwildi, O.R., King, D.A. (2010). The status of conventional world oil reserves—Hype or cause for concern?, Energy Policy. 38(8). Pp. 4743-4749. Accessed December 31st from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421510001072

Smith, J.L. (2012). On the portents of peak oil (and other indicators of resource scarcity). Energy Policy. 44. PP. 68-78. Accessed November 1st from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421512000171

Stöglehner, G. (2003). Ecological footprint — a tool for assessing sustainable energy supplies. Journal of Cleaner Production. 11(3). Pp. 267-277. Accessed Nov. 1st from  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095965260200046X

Valero, A., Valero, A. (2012). What are the clean reserves of fossil fuels? Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 68. PP 126-131 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344912001425

Community Support

Beauty in strange places

New paradigm of nature

Energetic scribblings...

This is a quick little thought I wrote for a class on Energy and the Environment. I'm starting to get back into writing mode.
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Energy use around the world is largely acknowledged to cause environmental degradation due to the sources and ways in which societies harness and use fossil fuels which pollute soil, water and air and release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, contributing to anthropogenic climate change (Goldblatt et al 2005). One way to help reduce humans’ environmental footprint is to assess our individual energy consumption and attempt to reduce this.

An individual’s energy use can be analyzed by dividing activities into different sectors: transport, household and consumption of goods (Goldblatt et al 2005). To assess my own consumption, I will be examining an average year’s worth of activities from a Canadian perspective, as that is where I have spent my last few years. I will also critique the basic energy analyses that are available and discuss the hidden energy costs endemic to developed countries.

I propose that while I am an environmentally aware person, I register as an average Canadian energy user for general household electricity use; heating, lighting and appliances (Statistics Canada 2010). As well, environmental awareness seems to have little impact on energy consumption reduction, either due to societal inability to alter change or personal reluctance to mitigate consumption behaviour (Gatersleben and Vlek 1998)..

My average yearly energy consumption is likely close to the Canadian average of approximately 94.6MWh per year (Ménard 2005). The factors that make myself and other Canadians such energivores are geographic, economic and social. Geographic reasons include the sheer size and breadth of Canada that increases the travel distance for people and their consumer goods (Ménard 2005). The economic factors relate to the energy intensive resource extracting industries that the Canadian economy is based on: “mining, forestry, petrochemical, pulp and paper, aluminium smelters, refining and steel manufacturing” (Ménard 2005).

Transport

Due to the geography of Canada, the energetic cost of transportation is massive. The transportation sector is divided in two; half of the energetic demand is used to transport people and the other half is used to transport their goods (National Energy Board 2012).

According to the Energy Diet Challenge Calculator, my yearly transportation energy demand is 2.68MWh for public transit, including the metro and the bus, and a staggering 17.4MWh for air travel (Canadian Geographic 2012). At this point, looking over my numbers, the most straightforward way of reducing my energy consumption would be to fly less. However, let us continue to examine my other sources of energy consumption. 

Household

Statistics Canada provides energy consumption information at the household level, but doesn’t account for wide variability characteristic of Canadian homes, in terms of size, inhabitants and modernity of insulation and appliances. For example, the energy use at my city apartment, located on the top floor of a triplex would be drastically different than at my country home, which is a large detached home. In the household, energy, as electricity is used for heating, cooling, lighting, hot water, appliances and personal electronics (Statistics Canada 2010). Canadians used 29.4MWh of energy in 2007 in their homes, with my province of Quebec registering as the lowest consumers at 26.1MWh per household (Statistics Canada 2010).

The province of Quebec, purports to have 61% of energy use as electricity, with an average household using 15.8MWh and the residential sector representing nearly 20% of the total yearly energy use for the province (Ménard 2005, Statistics Canada 2010). Based on the Energy Diet Challenge Calculator, for where I live, my average yearly household energy use is approximately 14.6MWh, based on using hydroelectric power for heating and electricity (Canadian Geographic 2012). The climate in Canada is a limiting factor to how much energy can be saved in a given year.

Consumption

 In a given year, I consume thousands of dollars worth of goods that demand energy to produce and transport. A study of over 50 average food products found that an average food item travelled nearly 5000km in Canada, accounting for massive energy demands in transportation costs, not to mention the energy associated with the fossil fuels used to grow the crops (pesticides, fertilizers, fuel for farming vehicles), transform and process it (CAEEDAC 1998, Xuereb 2005,). Clothing also hides extremely high energetic costs (Ozturk 2005). Electronics are also a big source of personal energy demand and increase the total household electrical demand (Coleman et al 2012). It is difficult to judge the energetic cost of my consumer habits but I believe that this opens up bigger picture questions, relating to the hidden energy demand of our day-to-day lives. In this sector, I could pledge to consume less in order to lower my yearly energy demand, but as a frugal student, my consumption habits are already at a relatively low level.

Based on the numbers that I have found, my household and transportation demands equal almost 35MWh per year. As an average Canadian, I carry a nearly 95MWh per year energy bill, meaning that my goods cost me approximately 60MWh per year.

As for reducing my yearly energy consumption, the simple fact of relocating to the UK will drastically reduce my average energy consumption, as household energy use is geographically and climatically dependent (Druckman and Jackson 2008). According to the World Bank, the UK energy use per capita is less than half of the Canadian average (The World Bank 2012).

Hidden Energy

The hidden costs of energy seem to be everywhere and completely disregarded by average energy consumption calculations and audits. For instance, the literature is extremely vague about what is taken into account to measure energy. Does it account for the distance between where the energy is produced and where it is used? In Quebec, the hydroelectricity must travel much further to the end user, losing energy along the way, compared to England where distances aren’t nearly as vast. Energy calculations focus on the end-user, putting the onus on them for energy reduction and ignoring the possibility of decreasing production by determining other areas where energy waste and loss occur.

This assessment also disregards the energy costs of living in society that are taken for granted and difficult to account for. By this, I mean the energy required to run the infrastructure that we use on a daily basis. It isn’t difficult to quantify the basic amount of energy that I use in my household by running my computer for the length of time it takes to write this assignment. However, determining how much energy is used to run the physical infrastructure of the Internet is much more complicated. The massive data centres that are used to store our communal information require vast amounts of electricity and Greenpeace estimates that 1.5 to 2% of the world’s total energy is used by these data centres to run the world wide web (European Commission 2012, Greenpeace 2011).

The current approach of energy reduction puts pressure on the consumer to reduce their consumption, by using incentives and disincentives, be they educational or economic. One person reducing their energy use by 20% might help mitigate climate change and environmental degradation, but I believe that we need a systematic re-evaluation of how we view energy consumption that accounts for the energy items we tend to forget about and puts the onus on producers as well as consumers.

References

Canadian Geographic. (2012). The Energy Diet Challenge: Footprint Calculator. Available: http://energydiet.canadiangeographic.ca/calculator. Last accessed 23rd Oct 2012.

CAEEDAC (The Canadian Agricultural Energy End-Use Data Analysis Center). (1998). Energy Consumption in the Canadian Agricultural and Food Sector. Final Report For Agriculture and Agri-food Canada Contract no. 9058-968-0000-9600 Dr. B. Grace and Dr. R. P. Zentner Scientific Authorities. 1 (1), p. 1-42.

Coleman, M., Brown, N., Wright, A., Firth, S.K. (2012).  Information, communication and entertainment appliance use - Insights from a UK household study. Energy and Buildings, 54, pp. 61-72. Article in Press. Last accessed 23rd Oct 2012.

http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84866035869&partnerID=40&md5=d322df133932eb195471946806b4165e

Druckman, A., Jackson, T. (2008). Household energy consumption in the UK: A highly geographically and socio-economically disaggregated model. Energy Policy. 36(8), pp. 3177-3192.

Last accessed 23rd Oct 2012.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421508001559

European Commission. (2012). 6.2 Data Centres in an energy-efficient and environmentally friendly Internet. Available: http://ec.europa.eu/information_society/events/cf/ictpd12/item-display.cfm?id=8423. Last accessed 23rd Oct 2012.

Gatersleben, B., Vlek, C.A.J. . (1998). Household consumption, quality of life, and environmental impacts: a psychological perspective and empirical study.. In: Noorman, K.J., Schoot Uiterkamp, A.J.M Green Households? Domestic Consumers, Environment, & Sustainability. London: Earthscan.

Greenpeace. (2011). New Greenpeace report digs up the dirt on Internet data centres. Available: http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/news/features/New-Greenpeace-report-digs-up-the-dirt-on-Internet-data-centres/. Last accessed 23rd Oct 2012.

Goldblatt, D.L., Hartmann, C., Dürrenberger, G. (2005). Combining interviewing and modelling for end-user energy conservation. Energy Policy. 33(2) p. 257-271. Last accessed 23rd Oct 2012.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421503002398

Ménard, M. (2005). Canada, a Big Energy Consumer: A Regional Perspective. Analytical Paper, Analysis in Brief, Statistics Canada. 11 (23), p. 1-21.

Available: publications.gc.ca/collections/Collection/.../11-621-MIE2005023.pdf. Last accessed 23rd Oct 2012.

National Energy Board. (2012). Canadian Energy Demand: Passenger Transportation - Energy Briefing Note. Available: http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/nrgyrprt/nrgdmnd/pssngrtrnsprttn2009/pssngrtrnsprttn-eng.html. Last accessed 23rd Oct 2012.

Ozturk, H.K. (2005). Energy usage and cost in textile industry: A case study for Turkey. Energy, 30 (13), pp. 2424-2446.

Last accessed 23rd Oct 2012.

http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-14644435049&partnerID=40&md5=c4170712bd190ee7ada70b5120c9b200

Statistics Canada. (2010). Households and the Environment: Energy Use Analysis. Available: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-526-s/2010001/part-partie1-eng.htm. Last accessed 23rd Oct 2012.

The World Bank. (2012). Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita). Available: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE. Last accessed 23rd Oct 2012.

Xuereb, M. (2005). Food Miles: Invironmental Implications of Food. Available: chd.region.waterloo.on.ca/en/.../resources/FoodMiles_Report.pdf. Last accessed 23rd Oct 2012.

Cleaning off the cobwebs

I had an epiphany as I was walking home along the plant-bordered dirt path that winds through University parks. I have found my Mecca. Apologies if that is politically incorrect or culturally insensitive. The truth is, I have been in this city for over one month and never have I felt so attached to a new city so quickly. I feel like a kid in a candy shop, or even better, a nerd in a library. I can count on one hand the days that I have not felt mentally stimulated, and those were largely due to over-socializing the night before. I never want to leave. It’s Oxford that makes me realize the beauty of staying in academia and devoting my life to learning. This may well be the most densely overachiever-brainiac populated place in the world. I think that if I stay quiet and throw out a few smart sounding words every once in a while, I won’t be discovered.

Through the door

It has been a challenge to rewire my brain so that it can sit still for extended amounts of time and focus. In fact, this is something that I am still struggling with and I am already halfway through my first of two terms. At this rate, by the time classes are finished in March, I’ll be ready to sit through two hour lectures. I must admit that as I write this, I am sitting in a café where I had intended to finish a fascinating book about water privatization that I need to finish by Thursday. It’s not like I have had all summer to read it… Oh wait… I did.

The main adjustment here, other than the strange way these people speak, is the evaluation system. We aren’t evaluated until May on anything except for one elective class essay due after our 6-week winter break. The final exams are what nightmares are made of. We have three 3-hour exams, during which we have 3 essays to write that each evaluate one of the core subjects we learned throughout the year. If that isn’t scary enough, we are required to wear the full academic garb of subfusc (white collared shirt, black skirt or trousers with black tights or shoes) and gown with cap. How am I expected to concentrate when I’m surrounded by wizards taking muggle exams?

The classes themselves are fascinating on a bad day and mind blowing on a good day. This program is perfectly designed to churn out generalists about every aspect of water. I wrestle with trying to find something to specialize on for my dissertation. I currently have just under thirty separate ideas of research projects that I would like to undertake that range from the extremely technical to the very political. 

My 28 classmates represent 17 countries from around the world with a wide variety of experience and backgrounds. All in all, not a bad first month of school. 

England's South Coast. The line of rock in the water represents several million years worth of geological formation that fell from the cliffs. You can walk by million years of ancient life in several yards.